Your Weekly Stock Markets Rundown: Markets Stabilize Amid GST News, Tariff Exemptions, Eyes on Fed Minutes

Overview

• Weekly Performance: The BSE Sensex edged up 0.07% to close at 80,597.66 on August 14 (latest available), while the Nifty 50 rose 0.05% to 24,631.30, amid mixed trading sessions. The week (August 11-15) saw gains on August 11 (Sensex up 0.93% to 80,604) but losses later due to tariff concerns, with broader markets under pressure from FII outflows.

• Tariff Developments: US tariffs on India (50% from August 27) led to volatility, but exemptions for pharma and electronics cushioned impact, with China voicing support for India's position.

• Global Sentiment: US markets rebounded, with Nasdaq up amid rate-cut hopes (75% chance for 25 bps September cut), but weak jobs data (unemployment at 4.2%) signals caution.

• FII/DII Flows: FIIs remained net sellers (Rs 30,509 crore in July, trend continuing), offset by DII buying (Rs 40,000 crore in July), supporting stability.

• Earnings Wind-Down: Q1 FY26 season nears end, with mixed results; focus on remaining reports like IndianOil.

📅 Weekly Events Calendar

💡 DO YOU KNOW?

India’s manufacturing PMI reached 59.2 in July (flash), the highest since March 2024, indicating strong expansion despite global trade tensions, with final data confirming resilience in domestic activity.

Important Observations and Market Sentiments: Editor Special

• Tariff Mitigation: Exemptions for key sectors like pharma limited damage from US tariffs, but textiles and autos face 50-70% hits; ongoing US-EU talks (50-50 deal chance) and postponed India-US negotiations add uncertainty.

• Fed Minutes Watch: July FOMC minutes on August 20 could signal September rate cuts, boosting emerging markets if dovish, amid weak US jobs data.

• Earnings Insights: Q1 FY26 growth at 4.6%, with banks and IT underperforming; IndianOil's results on August 18 will highlight energy sector trends.

• Monsoon Support: Rainfall at 90% of normal aids rural demand, potentially lifting auto and FMCG stocks, as seen in recent X sentiments on Nifty support levels.

• Technical View: Nifty support at 24,300, resistance at 24,900; a break below risks 24,000, with volatility from F&O expiry and global data.

👀Stocks to Focus:

• Energy: IndianOil, with Q1 FY26 earnings call on August 18 amid oil market reports.

• Pharma: Glenmark and Divi's Labs, benefiting from tariff exemptions.

• Automobiles: Hero MotoCorp, tied to rural sales, boosted bythe monsoon.

• Banking: ICICI Bank, monitoring loan growth data on August 20.

📜 Summary:

The week of August 18-22, 2025, follows a mixed close with Sensex at 80,597.66 and Nifty at 24,631.30, as tariff exemptions provide relief but ongoing trade talks and FII outflows weigh on sentiment. Key focus on Fed minutes (August 20), global flash PMIs (August 21), and India's WPI (August 18), alongside remaining Q1 earnings like IndianOil. Nifty's range (24,300-24,900) suggests consolidation, with downside risks if support breaks. Opportunities in energy, pharma, auto, and banking sectors amid domestic resilience and global rate-cut hopes.

🚀 Stay cautious, watch key events, and trade wisely!

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