Your Weekly Stock Markets Rundown: 🌐 Orange Bear 🐻 Rattles the Globe: All Eyes on RBI Amid Tariff Turmoil

📉 Global Market Carnage:
The ripple effects of US President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff storm sent shockwaves across global financial markets this week.

• Dow Jones tanked 3.98%, S&P 500 slid 4.84%, and Nasdaq plummeted 5.97% — their worst single-week performance in months.

• European markets bled too — STOXX 600 fell 2.57%.

• Asian markets weren't spared:

  • Nikkei 225 closed 2.77% lower,

  • Hang Seng declined 1.52%,

  • Kospi fell 0.76%,

  • S&P/ASX 200 dropped 0.94%.

📊 India’s Silver Lining:
While it’s been carnage globally, India appears relatively better positioned:

• Competing nations like China, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Indonesia have been slapped with steeper tariffs.

• Crucially, services exports were exempted, which is a win for India, as it now exports more services than goods.

• The impact, though sharp, may not be long-lasting, according to market experts.

📆 MPC Meet in Focus (April 7–9):
Amid the chaos, the Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting is highly anticipated.

• Expectations are high for a second consecutive repo rate cut, driven by:

  • Low inflation data 📉

  • Sluggish growth outlook 📊

• The market will watch closely for the RBI’s stance on global uncertainty, especially its commentary on the tariffs’ macro impact.

🔮 What’s Next?

• Will the RBI step in as a calming force amid global chaos?

• Will India’s relative tariff advantage and services strength help it stand out in the storm?

📅 Weekly Events Calendar

💡 DO YOU KNOW?

India’s foreign exchange reserves hit $658.8 billion in the week ending March 21, 2025, reflecting a robust buffer as global trade tensions rise. This figure could see further updates with the upcoming data release on April 11.

Important Observations and Market Sentiments: Editor Special

• Trade War Jitters: The reciprocal tariffs have sparked fears of a global economic recession, with sharp declines across major indices signaling investor panic.

• India’s Silver Lining: The CIO of Q India UK notes that India’s tariff burden is lighter compared to competitors, and the exclusion of services could cushion the economy.

• MPC’s Balancing Act: A potential repo rate cut on April 9 could boost sentiment, but the MPC’s stance on US tariffs and global uncertainty will be critical.

• US Economic Indicators: FOMC minutes and upcoming inflation and jobless claims data will provide clues on the Federal Reserve’s next moves amid tariff pressures.

• UK Economic Slowdown: Weak GDP and industrial production data suggest ongoing challenges, which could weigh on global market sentiment.

👀Stocks to Focus:

• Banking Sector (India): HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and SBI may see volatility or gains depending on the MPC’s rate decision and commentary.

• Export-Oriented Stocks (India): Companies like Infosys and TCS, benefiting from the services sector exemption, could attract attention.

• US Multinationals: Stocks like Apple and Tesla may face pressure due to tariff-related cost increases and market declines.

• Defensive Stocks (Global): Nestlé and Unilever could be safer bets amid recession fears and market instability.

📜 Summary:

The week of April 7-11, 2025, unfolds under the shadow of US reciprocal tariffs, which triggered a global market sell-off and heightened recession fears. India stands relatively better positioned due to lighter tariff impacts and the services sector exemption, while the RBI MPC meeting (April 7-9) could offer a domestic boost with a potential rate cut. Investors will closely monitor the MPC’s response to global trade tensions, alongside key US and UK economic data releases. With benchmark indices reeling and gold likely to remain a safe haven, the market outlook remains cautious, with opportunities in defensive and service-driven stocks.

🚀 Stay cautious, watch key events, and trade wisely!

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