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Your Weekly Stock Markets Rundown: Markets End FY24-25 on a High, But Caution Looms Ahead of US Tariff Announcements
March 31 - April 4, 2025
thestock whisperers
March 30, 2025
March 31 - April 4, 2025
Positive Finish to FY24-25: The Nifty 50 gained 169 points to close at 23,519, and the BSE Sensex rallied 509 points to 77,415, driven by renewed FII buying and optimism around a potential RBI rate cut in April.
Broader Markets Lag: Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 indices fell 0.3% and 0.55%, respectively, underperforming benchmark indices.
Global Trade Tensions: Investors remain cautious as the Trump administration is set to announce new tariffs on April 2, with a 25% import tax on automobiles already confirmed.
Gold Shines: COMEX gold futures surged 3.07% to a record $3,114.3 per troy ounce, reflecting safe-haven demand amid escalating trade tensions.
US Jobs Data in Focus: Key US employment data (JOLTs, unemployment rate, non-farm payrolls) and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech on April 4 will guide market sentiment.
Auto Sector Weakness: Automobile sales for March are expected to decline across segments, with passenger vehicles down 12-14% YoY and 2-wheelers down 11-13% YoY.
📅 Weekly Events Calendar
Date | Event |
|---|---|
Mon, Mar 31 | Market Holiday: Eid-Ul-Fitr (Ramadan Eid) |
Tue, Apr 1 | US: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Mar), JOLTs Job Openings & Quits, Construction Spending (Feb) Euro Area: HCOB Manufacturing PMI Final, Inflation Flash (Mar), Unemployment Rate (Feb) Japan: Unemployment Rate, Jobs Applications Ratio (Feb), Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Final (Mar) China: Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Mar), Current Account (Q4-2024) UK: S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Final (Mar) India: Monthly Auto Sales Data (Mar) |
Wed, Apr 2 | US: API & EIA Crude Oil Stock Change, MBA Mortgage Applications (week ended Mar 28), ADP Employment Change & Total Vehicle Sales (Mar) Euro Area: HCOB Services PMI Final (Mar), ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts Japan: Jibun Bank Services PMI Final (Mar) China: Caixin Services PMI (Mar) UK: S&P Global Services PMI Final (Mar) India: HSBC Manufacturing PMI Final (Mar) Global: US Tariff Announcements by Trump Administration |
Thu, Apr 3 | US: Challenger Job Cuts (Mar), Balance of Trade (Feb), Initial Jobless Claims (week ended Mar 29), S&P Global Services PMI Final (Mar), Factory Orders (Feb) Euro Area: HCOB Construction PMI (Mar) Japan: Household Spending (Feb) UK: New Car Sales, S&P Global Construction PMI (Mar) |
Fri, Apr 4 | US: Unemployment Rate, Non-Farm Payrolls (Mar), Jerome Powell Speech < Japan: Foreign Exchange Reserves (Mar) India: HSBC Services PMI Final (Mar), Foreign Exchange Reserves (week ended Mar 28) |
💡 DO YOU KNOW?
The US dollar index has been consolidating for three consecutive weeks, closing at 104.01 (down 0.13% WoW), while the 10-year Treasury yield ended at 4.251% (up 0.02% WoW). This stability reflects a wait-and-watch approach by investors ahead of the US tariff updates and jobs data.
Important Observations and Market Sentiments: Editor Special
US Tariff Concerns: The upcoming tariff announcements on April 2 could escalate global trade tensions, potentially impacting global growth and slowing the US economy if the measures are aggressive.
Sectoral Underperformance: India’s automobile and pharmaceutical sectors fell over 2% last week, hit by tariff concerns and the 25% import tax on automobiles effective April 2.
Domestic Optimism: Hopes of an RBI rate cut in April, alongside continued FII buying, are supporting a positive bias in the Indian market despite global uncertainties.
US Jobs and Fed Watch: An expected rise in the US unemployment rate (from 4.1% in Feb) and Powell’s speech on April 4 will be critical for gauging the Federal Reserve’s rate cut plans, with two cuts signaled for 2025.
Gold’s Safe-Haven Appeal: Gold’s rally to record highs signals heightened investor anxiety over trade tensions, with prices trading at the upper end of Bollinger bands.
👀Stocks to Focus:
Banking & Financial Services: Stocks like HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and SBI could see continued interest on expectations of an RBI rate cut.
Automobile Sector: Despite weak sales forecasts, watch Maruti Suzuki, Tata Motors, and Mahindra & Mahindra as monthly sales data drops on April 1.
Pharmaceuticals: Dr. Reddy’s Laboratories and Sun Pharma may face pressure due to tariff concerns, but could offer buying opportunities if stabilization occurs post-tariff clarity.
Gold-Related Stocks: Companies like Titan and Rajesh Exports may benefit from the ongoing rally in gold prices.
📜 Summary:
The Indian market closed FY24-25 on a positive note, with the Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex posting gains, driven by FII buying and rate cut hopes. However, caution prevails ahead of the US tariff announcements on April 2, which could escalate global trade tensions. The truncated week starting April 1 is likely to see consolidation with a positive bias, though early corrections may occur due to tariff uncertainties. Key data points like US job numbers, PMI releases, and India’s auto sales will shape sentiment, while investors also look to the upcoming RBI policy meeting and Q4 earnings. Gold remains a safe-haven bet amid global uncertainties, and banking stocks may continue to attract attention.
🚀 Stay cautious, watch key events, and trade wisely!
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Disclaimer: The Stock Whisperers is a media platform providing educational and informational content related to the stock market. We do not offer investment advice, stock recommendations, or tips. Readers should consult a SEBI-registered advisor before making any investment decisions.