Your Weekly Stock Markets Rundown: Markets Brace for Volatility as US Data, Tariffs, and Earnings Flood the Week Ahead

Overview

• Market Recovery Signs: The Nifty 50 closed at 24,596 (up 0.09% WoW) and Sensex at 80,623 (down 0.10% WoW) as of August 8, amid US tariff impacts, but domestic buying (DIIs at Rs 10,864 crore) and optimism over US-Russia talks cushioned losses.

• Tariff Update: Trump's 50% tariffs on India (effective August 27) led to a modest dip, wiping Rs 4 lakh crore ($47.64 billion) on August 8, but markets rebounded with sectors like pharma and electronics exempt.

• Earnings Momentum: Q1 FY26 season continues with over 260 companies reporting on August 11, including Bata India and Savera Industries, focusing on consumer and industrial trends.

• Global Cues: US CPI and retail sales data will influence Fed rate cut bets (75% chance for September 25 bps cut), while China's activity data and RBA meeting add to volatility.

• Volatility Ahead: Nifty support at 24,300 and resistance at 24,900; FII outflows (Rs 30,509 crore in July) persist, offset by DII inflows.

📅 Weekly Events Calendar

💡 DO YOU KNOW?

India’s manufacturing PMI hit 59.2 in July (flash data), the strongest since March 2024, signaling robust expansion despite tariff headwinds, with final figures due this week.

Important Observations and Market Sentiments: Editor Special

• Tariff Fallout: The 50% US tariffs on India (up from 25%) could hit textiles and autos by 50-70% (GTRI report), but exemptions for pharma and electronics limit damage, with China backing India's sovereignty.

• Earnings Watch: Q1 FY26 growth stalls at 4.6% (Motilal Oswal), with banks and IT disappointing; focus on LIC (Aug 12) and Apollo Hospitals (Aug 15) for sector recovery signals.

• US Data Impact: CPI (Aug 12) and retail sales (Aug 14) could sway Fed expectations; weak jobs (unemployment at 4.2%) may boost rate cut odds, supporting emerging markets like India.

• Domestic Resilience: Strong monsoon (90% normal rainfall) aids rural demand, while DII inflows counter FII selling; Nifty pressure below 24,500 risks further downside.

• Global Optimism: Nasdaq hit record highs (up 3.9% WoW) on AI and rate-cut hopes, but Trump's tariff threats (35% on Canada) keep volatility high.

👀Stocks to Focus:

• Consumer Goods: Bata India and Savera Industries (earnings Aug 11) for discretionary spending trends.

• Insurance/Healthcare: LIC (Aug 12) and Apollo Hospitals (Aug 15) amid sector exemptions from tariffs.

• Automobiles: Bajaj Auto (Aug 14) with monsoon boosting rural sales.

• Industrials: Cummins India (Aug 13) for manufacturing PMI-driven momentum.

📜 Summary:

The week of August 11-15, 2025, follows a volatile close with Nifty at 24,596 and Sensex at 80,623, as US tariffs (50% on India from Aug 27) weigh on sentiment, but exemptions and DII support provide cushion. Earnings from LIC, Bata India, and Apollo Hospitals, alongside US CPI, retail sales, and India's WPI data, will drive direction. Nifty's range (24,300-24,900) suggests consolidation with downside risks below 24,500. Opportunities in consumer, healthcare, and auto sectors amid global rate-cut optimism and domestic resilience.

🚀 Stay cautious, watch key events, and trade wisely!

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