Your Weekly Stock Markets Rundown: Markets Brace for Volatility Amid Trade and Earnings Focus

Overview

• Market Sentiment: Indian markets ended a volatile week with the Sensex at 80,599 (down 1.06%) and Nifty at 24,550 (down 1.2%) as of August 1, reflecting concerns over potential US tariffs and mixed global cues. The week ahead, August 4-8, 2025, is expected to remain range-bound, with Nifty likely trading between 24,300-24,900 and Sensex between 80,000-81,500, amid the ongoing Q1 FY26 earnings season and US trade deal uncertainties.

• Key Drivers: Focus will be on India’s monsoon progress, US jobs data, and trade negotiations, with the August 1 US tariff deadline extension talks ongoing. FII outflows (Rs 30,509 crore in July) and DII buying (Rs 40,000 crore) continue to shape sentiment.

• Global Context: US markets saw a sharp decline last week, with the S&P 500 dropping 2.4% and the Nasdaq falling 2.2%, driven by weak jobs data and tech sell-offs, setting a cautious tone for the week ahead.

📅 Weekly Events Calendar

💡 DO YOU KNOW?

JSW Cement’s Rs 3,600 crore IPO, opening August 7, aims to fund a new cement unit and debt repayment, marking a significant primary market event this week.

Important Observations and Market Sentiments: Editor Special

• Earnings Season: Over 128 companies, including DLF, Adani Ports, and Bharti Airtel, will report Q1 FY26 results, with analysts noting mixed performances. Trent and Titan are among those to watch for consumer demand trends.

• Trade Tensions: The August 1 US tariff deadline saw Trump extend talks with the EU and Canada, with a 50-50 chance of an EU deal. India-US negotiations are postponed to mid-August, keeping tariff risks alive, though domestic demand may cushion the impact.

• US Data Impact: Weak July jobs data (expected unemployment at 4.2%) and non-farm payrolls on August 8 could influence Fed rate cut expectations, with a 75% probability of a 25-bps cut in September per market pricing.

• Monsoon and Economy: A strong monsoon (90% of normal rainfall so far) supports rural demand, potentially boosting auto and FMCG stocks, while industrial production data due later will clarify manufacturing trends.

• Technical Outlook: Nifty’s support at 24,300 and resistance at 24,900 suggest consolidation, with a break below 24,300 risking further downside to 24,000, amid F&O expiry volatility.

👀Stocks to Focus:

• Infrastructure: DLF and Adani Ports, with Q1 results and infrastructure spending in focus.

• Telecom: Bharti Airtel, for growth in subscriber additions and ARPU.

• Automobiles: Maruti Suzuki and Tata Motors, tied to monsoon-driven rural sales.

• Consumer Goods: Titan and Trent, reflecting discretionary spending trends.

📜 Summary:

The week of August 4-8, 2025, follows a bearish close with Sensex at 80,599 and Nifty at 24,550, driven by global trade concerns and weak earnings. Markets are set for consolidation between 24,300-24,900 (Nifty), with volatility expected due to F&O expiry and US jobs data on August 8. The JSW Cement IPO and ongoing earnings from DLF, Adani Ports, and Bharti Airtel will draw attention, while a robust monsoon supports domestic sectors. Investors should monitor trade updates and US data, focusing on infrastructure, telecom, auto, and consumer goods stocks for opportunities.

🚀 Stay cautious, watch key events, and trade wisely!

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