Your Weekly Stock Markets Rundown: 📉 Inflation at a 5-Month Low, But Global Trade Tensions Persist

February 17–21, 2025

February 17–21, 2025

📉 Inflation at a 5-Month Low, But Global Trade Tensions Persist

India's January inflation dropped to 4.31%, the lowest in five months, validating the RBI’s rate cut decision. However, global uncertainties remain:

  • Trump’s trade tariffs are shaking global supply chains, with a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports causing concerns.

  • Fed Chair Powell is in no rush to cut interest rates, citing strong US economic growth and employment stability.

  • Indian stock markets face selling pressure due to high valuations, trade disruptions, and FII outflows.

📅 Weekly Events Calendar

Date

Events

Monday, Feb 17

Earnings: ABB India
Fed Speech: Philadelphia Fed President Patrick T. Harker will speak on US monetary policy.

Tuesday, Feb 18

US Housing Market Index: January data rose to 47, indicating demand firming up. February data will be released.

Wednesday, Feb 19

ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting: Focus on ECB’s stance after its January 25 bps rate cut.

Thursday, Feb 20

US FOMC Minutes: Insights into Fed’s decision to hold rates steady.
US Jobless Claims: Data for the week ending February 15 to be released.

Friday, Feb 21

India PMI Flash: January’s Manufacturing PMI was 57.7, the fastest growth since July, while Services PMI stood at 56.5. February data is awaited.

🤔 DO YOU KNOW?

🔹 PMI above 50 signals expansion, while below 50 indicates contraction.
🔹 India’s Manufacturing PMI of 57.7 in January was the highest since July, showing strong growth in new orders and exports.
🔹 Global steel supply chains are being disrupted due to new US tariffs, impacting Indian exporters.

👀Stocks to Focus:

📈 Metal & Export-Oriented Stocks: The impact of US trade tariffs on steel and aluminum may bring volatility to Tata Steel, JSW Steel, and SAIL.
📈 Banking Stocks: RBI’s rate cut and upcoming economic data may influence stocks like HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and SBI.
📈 IT Stocks: With the US Fed holding rates, TCS, Infosys, and Wipro could see steady movement.

📜 Summary:

✅ India’s inflation eased, strengthening RBI’s dovish stance.
✅ The US Fed is in no hurry to cut rates, keeping global markets on edge.
✅ Trade war tensions persist, affecting metals and export-driven industries.
✅ Markets remain volatile, with FIIs exiting and valuations staying high.

🚀 Stay cautious, watch key events, and trade wisely!

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