Your Weekly Stock Markets Rundown: Earnings and Global Cues to Drive a Volatile Week Ahead

Overview

• Bearish Trend Continues: The BSE Sensex fell 0.4% to 81,463, and the Nifty 50 dropped 0.5% to 24,837 for the week ended July 25, with broader markets (Nifty Midcap 100 down 1.85%, Smallcap 100 down 3.5%) under pressure due to weak Q1 FY26 earnings, cautious global sentiment, and FII outflows of Rs 13,553 crore.

• Market Outlook: Consolidation is expected, with focus on Q1 earnings, the FOMC meeting, US trade deal updates by August 1, auto sales, and key US economic data, amid potential volatility from the monthly F&O expiry.

• Expert Views: Consolidation amid India-US trade uncertainties and mixed earnings, while premium valuations are under strain from subpar earnings.

📅 Weekly Events Calendar

Weekly Events Calendar

💡 DO YOU KNOW?

The Nifty 50 is projected to see a modest 4.6% net profit growth for Q1 FY26, per Motilal Oswal, though muted demand and poor performances from Tata Motors and IndusInd Bank may temper gains.

Important Observations and Market Sentiments: Editor Special

• Earnings Season: Over 500 companies, including Nifty 50 names like Larsen & Toubro, NTPC, and Hindustan Unilever, will report Q1 FY26 results, with experts noting performance is in line with expectations but lacks upside surprises.

• US Trade Deadline: The August 1 deadline for US trade deals with the EU (30% tariff threat) and Canada (35% duty risk) looms, with a 50-50 chance of an EU deal per Trump, while India-US talks shift to mid-August, dimming hopes for a mini deal.

• FOMC and Data: The Fed is likely to hold rates at 4.25-4.50% on July 30, with focus on GDP and jobs data to gauge September cut prospects, amid pressure from Trump to ease rates.

• Domestic Cues: India’s industrial production and fiscal deficit data, alongside auto sales, will provide local insights, with manufacturing PMI at 59.2 (flash) signaling robust activity.

• FII vs DII: FII selling (Rs 30,509 crore month-to-date) contrasts with DII buying (Rs 40,000 crore), supporting stability, though FII outflows may persist due to earnings concerns.

👀Stocks to Focus:

• Infrastructure: Larsen & Toubro, benefiting from capital goods order momentum.

• Energy: NTPC and Power Grid, tied to domestic growth and global oil trends.

• Automobiles: Maruti Suzuki and Mahindra & Mahindra, with July auto sales in focus.

• Consumer Goods: Hindustan Unilever and ITC, despite a weak FMCG demand outlook.

📜 Summary:

The week of July 28-August 1, 2025, follows a bearish stretch on Dalal Street, with Sensex at 81,463 and Nifty at 24,837, pressured by weak Q1 FY26 earnings and FII outflows. Consolidation is anticipated, driven by over 500 earnings reports, the FOMC decision, and the US trade deadline on August 1, with volatility expected due to F&O expiry. Key US data (GDP, jobs) and India’s industrial production will guide sentiment, while auto sales and IPO activity add local flavor. Focus on infrastructure, energy, auto, and consumer goods stocks, with a stock-specific approach advised amid global uncertainties.

🚀 Stay cautious, watch key events, and trade wisely!

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