🌍 Trade Turmoil Meets Monsoon Hope as Market Eyes Earnings & Rate Cuts

• Trade War Escalation: The global trade landscape remains volatile as Trump takes an offensive stance, countered by China’s defiance. This disruption of supply chains leaves markets grappling with uncertainty.

• Earnings Season Gains Momentum: TCS, Wipro, and Infosys have kicked off Q4 FY25 results, with TCS reporting a revenue dip due to global demand weakness—investors await clarity from upcoming results to gauge India Inc’s recovery.

• Inflation Relief: Lower CPI and WPI figures signal RBI’s effective policy, potentially opening room for further rate cuts, which would be a boon for borrowers if monsoon forecasts hold.

• Monsoon Hope: IMD and Skymet predict a normal monsoon, which could boost agricultural output and economic growth if realized.

📅 Weekly Events Calendar

💡 DO YOU KNOW?

India’s manufacturing PMI hit 58.1 in March 2025, the highest since July 2024, reflecting robust growth in orders and output, while bank loan growth reached 11% year-on-year, signaling steady credit demand.

Important Observations and Market Sentiments: Editor Special

• Trade War Uncertainty: The unpredictable tit-for-tat between the US and China continues to unsettle global markets, with supply chain disruptions posing ongoing risks.

• Earnings Outlook: TCS’s weak Q4 numbers highlight global demand concerns, but upcoming results from HCL Tech, Infosys, and others could shift sentiment if they show resilience.

• RBI’s Next Move: With inflation easing and a favorable monsoon forecast, the RBI may consider additional rate cuts, though global trade tensions could temper this optimism.

• US Employment Watch: Rising initial jobless claims to 223,000 suggest potential labor market strain, with Thursday’s data critical for assessing recession risks.

• Market Mood: FII fluctuations and a lackluster rally indicate cautious investor sentiment, with domestic data like PMI and loan growth offering some stability.

👀Stocks to Focus:

• IT Sector: HCL Technologies, Tech Mahindra, and Persistent Systems for insights into global IT demand trends post-TCS’s results.

• Consumer Goods: HUL and Nestle India for signs of domestic consumption strength amid inflation relief.

• Financials: Mahindra & Mahindra Financial Services and Cholamandalam Investment for loan growth and credit health updates.

• Diversified Firms: LTIMindtree and L&T Technology Services for a broad view of tech and infrastructure performance.

📜 Summary:

The week of April 21-25, 2025, unfolds amid a chaotic trade war between the US and China, testing global supply chains and market resilience. India’s Q4 FY25 earnings season progresses with key IT and financial results, following TCS’s cautious start, while easing inflation and a promising monsoon forecast bolster hopes for RBI rate cuts. However, FII volatility and rising US jobless claims temper optimism. Investors will watch PMI data, loan growth, and consumer confidence figures for direction, with opportunities in IT, consumer goods, and financial stocks amidst the uncertainty.

🚀 Stay cautious, watch key events, and trade wisely!

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