The Market Whisper: Your Weekly Stock Markets Rundown

November 11- 15, 2024

November 11- 15, 2024

📉 Market Pause: Awaiting the Fed and China Stimulus Moves

This past week saw a 1% drop in Sensex and Nifty on Thursday, November 7 as investors took a breather ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision. The initial news of Donald Trump’s projected re-election gave markets a temporary boost, but they quickly reversed as the Fed’s move took center stage.

Market optimism on Trump’s re-election aligns well with India’s economic and geopolitical goals. His stance suggests a continued non-interventionist U.S. foreign policy and prioritization of U.S. domestic growth, which could benefit India’s position on the global stage.

Federal Reserve’s Rate Cut: In its latest move, the Fed trimmed the benchmark lending rate by 0.25% to 4.5-4.75%, marking a further attempt to maintain U.S. economic momentum. This reduction follows a 0.5% cut in September, with policymakers now signaling that additional cuts may be limited amid Trump’s policies and ongoing inflation pressures. The Fed mentioned progress on inflation but dropped language about achieving "greater confidence" in its 2% target, hinting at continued uncertainty.

China’s stimulus plans remain the next big question for investors globally. Although China and Hong Kong markets saw a slight dip on Friday, expectations are high for a potential fiscal boost from Beijing in response to Trump’s renewed tariff threats.

📅 Key Events This Week

Date

Event

Tuesday, Nov 12

UK Unemployment Rate: September data awaited; last at 4.0% in August.

India Industrial Production: September figures to be released following a 0.1% decline in August.

India Manufacturing Production: Expecting October’s data after August saw only a 1% year-on-year rise.

India Inflation Rate MoM: October inflation numbers are due; September’s rate was 0.6%.

Wednesday, Nov 13

US Inflation Rate MoM: Tracking consumer prices after September’s 0.2% increase.

Euro Area Industrial Production MoM: Awaiting September data after a 1.8% rise in August.

Thursday, Nov 14

UK GDP Growth Rate: Preliminary Q3 reading following 0.5% growth in Q2.

UK Monthly GDP MoM: September numbers are due; August grew 0.2% MoM.

US Initial Jobless Claims: The latest claims data is from a 12,000 decline to 216,000 last reported.

US PPI: October core producer price index awaited following September’s 0.2% increase.

Friday, Nov 15

China Industrial Production: October data is expected after a 5.4% YoY growth in September.

India Foreign Exchange Reserves: October-end data awaited, following a four-week decline.

US Industrial Production MoM: October figures due after a 0.3% drop in September.

📊 Market Sentiment and Observations

  • Fed’s Influence on Markets: The latest 0.25% Fed rate cut hints at a cautious approach to future rate adjustments, balancing growth with inflation risks as Trump’s policies might heighten prices and influence rates globally.

  • China’s Stimulus Speculation: Investors are monitoring China’s stimulus details, which could have implications for global trade and competition, especially given U.S. tariffs.

  • UK Economic Health: This week’s UK GDP growth rate data will be essential for understanding the impact of Brexit adjustments and external economic pressures on the British economy.

This week's high-impact events and economic data releases could set the tone for market movement into year-end. Investors may see continued volatility and a cautious stance as global economies juggle growth, inflation, and fiscal decisions.

Focus on Fundamentals 🧭

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Disclaimer: The information provided in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.

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