Nifty Targets 25,400 Amid Q2 Earnings Surge and Volatility Alerts

Overview

• Recent Performance: The Nifty 50 closed at 24,894.25 (up 0.23%) and Sensex at around 81,000+ (up 0.28%) on October 3, snapping a losing streak with IT stocks like TCS and TechM rising 3% each, but broader markets remain cautious ahead of Q2 earnings and global cues.

• Outlook: Markets may consolidate with upside potential to 25,400 (Nifty) and Sensex near records, driven by Q2 earnings and IPO momentum, though high-volatility days on October 6, 7, and 9 could trigger sharp moves.

• FII/DII Flows: FIIs were net sellers of Rs 1,583 crore on October 3, continuing September's Rs 30,509 crore outflows due to high valuations, offset by DII buying of Rs 489 crore, providing stability.

• Global Cues: US markets eye Powell's speech and jobless claims; Eurozone retail sales and construction PMI on Monday may influence sentiment, with trade data from US/Canada on Tuesday.

• Technicals: Nifty support at 24,650-24,700, resistance at 25,000-25,050; trend deciding level at 24,901, with bulls eyeing 25,200

📅 Weekly Events Calendar

💡 DO YOU KNOW?

September 2025 saw FII net outflows of Rs 30,509 crore, the highest monthly since March, primarily due to high valuations and global shifts, but DIIs countered with Rs 40,000 crore in buys, preventing deeper corrections.

Important Observations and Market Sentiments: Editor Special

• Q2 Earnings Boost: Over 500 companies report this week, including key Nifty names; in-line expectations but potential surprises in IT/banking could drive momentum toward 25,400.

• Volatility Hotspots: October 6, 7, and 9 flagged for sharp movements; traders advised to watch Nifty's 24,901 deciding level for trend confirmation.

• Global Data Impact: Powell's speech and US jobless claims could sway Fed cut bets; Eurozone PMI may signal recovery, influencing FII flows back to India.

• FII Pressures: Continued selling amid premium valuations, but DII resilience and IPO frenzy (e.g., Tata Capital Oct 6) may absorb liquidity hits.

• Technicals Bullish: Nifty above key EMAs eyes 25,200; support at 24,800 critical to avoid downside to 24,600.

👀Stocks to Focus:

• IT: TCS and Tech Mahindra, after recent 3% gains and Q2 focus.

• Banking: HDFC Bank, amid management changes and rate-cut tailwinds.

• Renewables: Tata Power, post-PPA wins for 80 MW project.

• Cement: ACC, despite tax penalties, for sector recovery plays.

📜 Summary:

The week of October 6-10, 2025, starts with Nifty at 24,894.25 and Sensex up 0.28%, poised for upside to 25,400 amid Q2 earnings and IPOs, but volatility peaks on October 6,7,9. US Powell speech, jobless claims, and Eurozone PMI will guide global flows, while FII outflows persist against DII support. Nifty's bullish EMAs hold above 24,800 support; focus on IT, banking, renewables, and cement for gains in a data-heavy stretch.

🚀 Stay cautious, watch key events, and trade wisely!

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