Markets Ride Fed Cut Wave, All Eyes on India–US Trade Talks

Overview

• Weekly Surge Continues: The Nifty 50 climbed 1.51% to close above 25,100 for the second consecutive week ended September 19, while the BSE Sensex gained 0.44% to 81,904.70, marking eight straight sessions of advances amid global rate-cut euphoria and domestic resilience.

• Broader Indices Steady: Nifty Midcap 100 edged up 0.2%, but Smallcap 100 dipped 0.5% on selective profit-booking, with DII inflows of Rs 1,821 crore offsetting FII selling of Rs 1,304 crore.

• Global Tailwinds: US markets flat post-Fed cut, with S&P 500 unchanged; Asian peers mixed, Nikkei rising 0.5% on policy optimism, while rupee held steady at 86.50 vs USD.

• Trade Spotlight: India's Trade Minister Piyush Goyal's US visit on September 22 accelerates mini-deal talks, easing 50% tariff fears with exemptions for pharma intact.

• Domestic Boost: August CPI at 2.07% (up slightly) keeps RBI easing doors open; strong monsoon sustains rural demand.

📅 Weekly Events Calendar

💡 DO YOU KNOW?

India's manufacturing PMI is forecasted at 58.5 for September (flash), extending expansion above 50 for the 10th month, driven by robust new orders amid trade truce optimism.

Important Observations and Market Sentiments: Editor Special

• Fed Aftermath: The September 17 25 bps cut to 4.00-4.25% sparked global rallies, but Powell's cautious speech tempers aggressive easing bets; US PCE data on September 26 could confirm September's dovish tilt.

• India-US Trade Momentum: Goyal's Washington visit on September 22 aims to seal a mini-deal, potentially averting full 50% tariffs; exemptions shield pharma, but autos/textiles remain vulnerable.

• Inflation Dynamics: August CPI rise to 2.07% reflects food price upticks, but core remains tame at 3.5%; softer prints could prompt RBI's next cut in October.

• Flows and Valuations: FII selling (Rs 11,169 crore last week) persists on high valuations, but DII support keeps indices afloat.

• Technicals Alert: Nifty's support at 25,000 holds firm, with resistance at 25,220; analysts flag September 24 as a high-momentum date for potential breakout.

👀Stocks to Focus:

• Renewables: Adani Green Energy, riding trade exemptions and green energy push.

• Consumer: Varun Beverages and Page Industries, for monsoon-fueled demand trends.

• Insurance: HDFC Life, sensitive to rate cuts and policy easing.

• Industrials: Grasim and KEI Industries, tied to PMI and infrastructure capex.

📜 Summary:

The week of September 22-26, 2025, builds on Nifty's surge above 25,100 and Sensex at 81,904.70, with Fed cut tailwinds and trade deal hopes driving optimism. Goyal's US visit (Sep 22) and US PCE data (Sep 26) will be pivotal, alongside flash PMIs and earnings from Adani Green and HDFC Life. Nifty's bullish setup above 25,000 persists, supported by DIIs despite FII caution; September 24 eyed for momentum. Focus on renewables, consumer, insurance, and industrials amid easing inflation and global positivity.

🚀 Stay cautious, watch key events, and trade wisely!

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