Markets Eye Fresh Triggers: Fed Cut Tailwinds, US Jobs Data & India-US Deal Buzz to Steer the Week Ahead

Overview

• Weekly Pressure Eases: The BSE Sensex fell 0.56% to close at 82,323.62, and the Nifty 50 dropped 0.49% to 25,202.35 for the week ended September 26, amid IT and pharma selloffs, but broader markets held steady with DII support.

• Broader Indices Resilient: Nifty Midcap 100 dipped 0.2%, while Smallcap 100 lost 0.5%, reflecting selective profit-booking despite FII outflows of Rs 5,687 crore on September 26.

• Global Mixed Bag: US equities hit records with the S&P 500 up 2%, driven by trade optimism; Asian markets surged, with China leading gains over 7%, while the Nikkei rose 0.5% on policy cues.

• Trade Progress: India-US mini-deal talks advance post-Goyal's visit, with potential year-end agreement; US pressure on Russian oil imports persists, but exemptions shield pharma.

• Flows Update: FIIs net sellers of Rs 13,882 crore over the week, countered by DII buying of Rs 40,000 crore monthly, stabilizing sentiment amid high valuations.

📅 Weekly Events Calendar

💡 DO YOU KNOW?

India's FII outflows reached Rs 30,509 crore in September so far, the highest monthly since March, driven by high valuations and global shifts, but DIIs have fully offset with Rs 40,000 crore in buys.

Important Observations and Market Sentiments: Editor Special

• Fed Easing Tailwinds: Post-September cut, US jobs data on October 3 (unemployment expected at 4.2%) could confirm further easing, boosting EM flows; a soft print may propel Nifty above 25,200.

• India-US Deal Momentum: Goyal's September visit yielded constructive talks; US insists on Russian oil curbs for progress, but exemptions for pharma limit downside, with year-end deal odds rising to 60%.

• Inflation Trends: August CPI at 2.07% keeps RBI room open for October cut; US ISM PMI on September 30 will signal manufacturing health amid trade truce extensions.

• FII Caution Persists: Weekly outflows of Rs 13,882 crore reflect earnings downgrade fears, but DII resilience and monsoon-driven rural demand (90% normal rainfall) support stability.

• Technicals Bullish: Nifty's eight-session streak holds support at 25,000; resistance at 25,220, with October 2 flagged as momentum pivot.

👀Stocks to Focus:

• Banking: ICICI Bank and SBI, eyeing loan growth data and rate-cut benefits.

• IT: Infosys and TCS, with global PMI cues and US data influencing outsourcing demand.

• Pharma: Sun Pharma, shielded by trade exemptions amid sector recovery.

• Autos: Maruti Suzuki, riding on rural sales from the strong monsoon.

📜 Summary:

The week of September 29-October 3, 2025, follows a corrective close with Sensex at 82,323.62 and Nifty at 25,202.35, pressured by sector selloffs but buoyed by global records and trade progress. US Labor Day holiday kicks off a data-packed stretch, with ISM PMI (Sep 30), ADP jobs (Oct 1), and non-farm payrolls (Oct 3) in focus, alongside India's PMI final. FII outflows continue, but DIIs stabilize; India-US deal hopes and exemptions mitigate risks. Nifty eyes 25,200 breakout above 25,000 support—opportunities in banking, IT, pharma, and autos amid easing signals.

🚀 Stay cautious, watch key events, and trade wisely!

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