Markets Eye Fed Rate Cut & Trade Deal Boost as Bull Run Stretches Into New Week

Overview

• Weekly Gains Extend: The Nifty 50 rose 1.51% to close above 25,100 for the second straight week ended September 12, while the BSE Sensex gained 0.44% to 81,904.70 on Friday, marking eight successive sessions of gains amid positive global cues.

• Broader Markets Steady: Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 showed resilience, with modest gains, supported by DII buying offsetting FII selling of Rs 11,169 crore.

• Global Optimism: US indices flat but Fed rate cut probability at 100% for September 17 boosts sentiment; Asian markets mixed, with Nikkei up on policy expectations.

• Trade Buzz: India-US trade deal talks heat up, with Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal potentially visiting the US, easing tariff fears despite exemptions for key sectors.

• Domestic Drivers: August CPI at 2.07% (up from 1.61%) supports easing expectations; monsoon progress aids rural demand.

📅 Weekly Events Calendar

💡 DO YOU KNOW?

The Nifty crossed 25,100 on September 12, its eighth straight day of gains, with analysts flagging September 18-19 as a crucial time cluster for potential momentum shifts or reversals

Important Observations and Market Sentiments: Editor Special

• Fed Rate Cut Hype: The FOMC meeting on September 17 is expected to deliver a 25 bps cut to 4.00-4.25%, with Powell's speech providing cues on future easing; a dovish tone could propel Nifty above 25,200.

• India-US Trade Deal: Buzz around a potential mini deal, with Goyal's US visit, supports export sectors; exemptions for pharma continue to shield against tariff risks.

• Inflation Trends: August CPI at 2.07% (below estimates) opens doors for RBI easing; US retail sales and jobs data (Sep 18-19) will influence global flows.

• FII/DII Balance: FII selling persists (Rs 11,169 crore last week), but DII inflows maintain support; high valuations may cap upside without earnings surprises.

• Technical Setup: Nifty support at 25,000/25,040, resistance at 25,153/25,220; staying above 25,000 keeps bullish outlook intact.

👀Stocks to Focus:

• Infrastructure/Ports: Adani Ports, as a top pick amid trade deal progress and strong Q2 order inflows.

• Metals/Steel: Jayaswal Neco Industries, recommended for momentum in commodity rebound.

• Banking: Axis Bank and ICICI Bank, sensitive to Fed cuts and loan growth data.

• Autos: Maruti Suzuki, boosted by rural demand and GST benefits.

📜 Summary:

The week of September 15-19, 2025, starts strong after Nifty's 1.51% weekly gain to above 25,100 and Sensex at 81,904.70, fueled by Fed cut anticipation and trade deal buzz. The FOMC decision on September 17 and US jobs data (Sep 19) will be pivotal, alongside India's PMI final and CPI impacts. Nifty's bullish bias persists above 25,000, with support from DIIs despite FII selling. September 18-19 flagged as key dates for reversals; focus on infrastructure, metals, banking, and autos for potential upside amid global easing signals.

🚀 Stay cautious, watch key events, and trade wisely!

😊Thank you for subscribing to our Weekly Stock Markets Rundown. Stay tuned for next Saturday.

Disclaimer: The Stock Whisperers is a media platform providing educational and informational content related to the stock market. We do not offer investment advice, stock recommendations, or tips. Readers should consult a SEBI-registered advisor before making any investment decisions.