Markets Eye 25,000 Amid GST Boost and Global Rate-Cut Hopes; CPI, ECB in Focus This Week

Overview

• Previous Week Gains: The BSE Sensex rose 1.12% to close at 80,710.76, and the Nifty 50 gained 1.28% to 24,741 for the week ended September 5, led by auto and metal sectors on GST levy cuts for everyday goods.

• Broader Market Mixed: Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 underperformed slightly, down 0.2% and 0.5% respectively, amid cautious sentiment from FII outflows of Rs 1,304 crore on September 5, offset by DII buying of Rs 1,821 crore.

• Global Cues: US markets flat, with S&P 500 little changed amid tariff talks; Asian indices mixed, Nikkei up 0.5% on rate hike expectations.

• Trade Tensions: US-India negotiations progress slowly, with exemptions for pharma; hopes for mini deal by mid-September amid extended US-China truce.

• Outlook: Markets expected to consolidate in 24,500-25,000 (Nifty) range, with volatility from inflation data and ECB decision; FII/DII flows remain key, with net FII selling trend continuing into September.

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💡 DO YOU KNOW?

India’s manufacturing PMI is projected at 58.5 for August (flash), continuing expansion above 50, supported by strong new orders despite global trade uncertainties.

Important Observations and Market Sentiments: Editor Special

• Inflation Watch: US CPI on September 11 (expected 2.6% YoY) and India CPI on September 12 (forecast 3.5% YoY) will gauge rate cut paths; softer prints could boost Fed/ECB easing bets.

• ECB Decision: Expected 25 bps cut to 3.50% on September 10, signaling end to tightening cycle amid trade fault lines; dovish stance may support global risk assets.

• FII/DII Dynamics: FIIs net sellers of Rs 1,304 crore on September 5, extending July's Rs 30,509 crore outflow trend due to high valuations; DIIs countered with Rs 1,821 crore buying, stabilizing markets.

• Trade Progress: US-EU talks at 50-50 for deal; India-US mini agreement hopes dim, but exemptions cushion impact on pharma and electronics sectors.

• Technical View: Nifty support at 24,500 (20-week EMA), resistance at 25,000; time-based analysis flags September 10 as high-momentum date for potential breakout.

👀Stocks to Focus:

• Ports/Infrastructure: Adani Ports, as a top pick amid trade deal updates and GST benefits.

• Steel/Metals: Jayaswal Neco Industries, recommended for September 5, but relevant for ongoing momentum.

• Banking: IndusInd Bank, watching loan growth and inflation impact on rates.

• Autos: Maruti Suzuki, boosted by GST cuts and rural demand from the monsoon.

📜 Summary:

The week of September 8-12, 2025, follows gains with Sensex at 80,710.76 and Nifty at 24,741, driven by GST levy reductions favoring autos and metals. Consolidation expected in 24,500-25,000 (Nifty), with volatility from ECB rate decision (Sep 10), US CPI (Sep 11), and India CPI (Sep 12). FII outflows persist, but DII support aids stability; trade truce hopes and exemptions mitigate tariff risks. Focus on infrastructure, metals, banking, and autos for opportunities amid global easing signals.

🚀 Stay cautious, watch key events, and trade wisely!

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