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Markets Enter September on Cautious Note: Tariff Heat, FII Outflows Weigh; All Eyes on US Jobs Data
September 01-05, 2025
thestock whisperers
August 31, 2025
September 01-05, 2025
Overview
Weekly Dip: The BSE Sensex declined 1.84% to close at 79,809.65, and the Nifty 50 fell 0.30% to 24,426.85 for the week ended August 29, driven by US tariff concerns, FII outflows of Rs 13,553 crore, and weak Q1 FY26 earnings.
Broader Weakness: Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 plummeted 1.85% and 3.5%, respectively, as subpar earnings challenged premium valuations.
Global Sentiment: US indices dipped, with S&P 500 down amid AI stock weakness, while Asian peers were mixed; the rupee weakened to 86.4570 against the USD.
Trade Impact: The 50% US tariffs on India (effective August 27) erased Rs 11.21 lakh crore in investor wealth over three days, but exemptions for pharma and electronics cushioned some sectors.
📅 Weekly Events Calendar
Date | Event |
|---|---|
Mon, Sep 1 | US: Labor Day Holiday (Markets Closed) India: HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Aug, final) China: Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Aug) |
Tue, Sep 2 | US: Construction Spending (Jul), ISM Manufacturing PMI (Aug) Eurozone: PPI (Jul) |
Wed, Sep 3 | US: Factory Orders (Jul), JOLTs Job Openings (Jul) UK: Nationwide House Prices (Aug) |
Thu, Sep 4 | US: ADP Employment Change (Aug), Initial Jobless Claims (week ending Aug 30) India: Bank Loan & Deposit Growth (fortnight ended Aug 15) |
Fri, Sep 5 | US: Non-Farm Payrolls (Aug), Unemployment Rate (Aug) India: Foreign Exchange Reserves (week ended Aug 29) Eurozone: GDP Q2 (Final) |
💡 DO YOU KNOW?
India’s manufacturing PMI hit 59.2 in July 2025, the strongest since March 2024, reflecting robust new orders and output growth despite global trade tensions.
Important Observations and Market Sentiments: Editor Special
Tariff Extensions: Trump extended US-China trade truce talks, with a 50-50 chance of an EU deal; India's negotiations postponed to mid-August, but exemptions for key sectors limit broader damage.
Earnings Wrap-Up: Q1 FY26 growth stalled at 4.6%, with subpar performances challenging valuations; investors eye final reports amid mixed sentiment.
Fed Watch: US jobs data on September 5 could influence rate cut odds (75% for 25 bps in September), boosting emerging markets if dovish.
FII Outflows: Continued selling (Rs 30,509 crore month-to-date) contrasts with DII buying (Rs 40,000 crore), stabilizing indices amid high valuations.
Monsoon Support: Rainfall at 90% of normal aids rural demand, potentially lifting auto and FMCG sectors.
👀Stocks to Focus:
Banking: SBI and ICICI Bank, with loan growth data on September 2 amid liquidity trends.
Technology: Infosys and TCS, tied to global PMI and US rate cut expectations.
Automobiles: Maruti Suzuki, benefiting from monsoon-driven rural sales.
Energy: Reliance Industries, monitoring trade truce impacts on oil markets.
📜 Summary:
The week of September 1-5, 2025, follows a bearish close with Sensex at 79,809.65 and Nifty at 24,426.85, pressured by US tariffs and FII outflows. Consolidation is expected in the 24,300-24,900 range (Nifty), with volatility from US jobs data and PMI releases. Tariff truce extensions provide relief, while Q1 earnings wind down amid subpar growth. Opportunities in banking, tech, auto, and energy sectors, with a stock-specific approach advised amid global rate-cut optimism and domestic resilience.
🚀 Stay cautious, watch key events, and trade wisely!
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