Markets Enter August 25-29 on Firm Footing: Nifty Eyes 25,000 Amid Rate Cut Hopes and Global Cues

Overview

• Indian Markets Rebound: The BSE Sensex rose 0.4% to close at 81,635.91, and the Nifty 50 gained 0.39% to 24,967.75 for the week ended August 22, driven by IT sector rallies on Fed rate cut signals and domestic demand resilience.

• Broader Market Mixed: Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 showed varied performance, with midcaps up 0.2% but smallcaps down 0.5%, reflecting caution in broader segments amid FII outflows.

• Global Rally: US indices hit records, with the Dow up 1.89% to 45,631.74 and S&P 500 rising 1.52% to 6,466.91, fueled by Powell's rate cut hints; Asian markets mixed with Nikkei up 0.5%.

• Trade Developments: US-China trade truce extended, with talks in Stockholm; India-US negotiations progressing, boosting sentiment despite tariff risks.

• FII/DII Flows: FIIs net sellers at Rs 15,000 crore last week, offset by DII buying of Rs 20,000 crore, supporting stability.

• Rupee and Dollar: The rupee weakened 0.2% to 86.50 against the USD, while the dollar index fell 0.8% to 97.67 amid rate cut expectations.

📅 Weekly Events Calendar

💡 DO YOU KNOW?

India’s manufacturing PMI reached 59.2 in July, the highest since March 2024, signaling robust expansion despite global trade tensions, with final data confirming strong new orders and output growth.

Important Observations and Market Sentiments: Editor Special

• Rate Cut Expectations: Powell's hints at a September cut boosted global indices, with a 75% probability of a 25 bps reduction; FOMC minutes on August 27 will provide further clues.

• Trade Truce Progress: US-China extension and optimistic EU talks (50-50 chance) ease tensions, but India's postponed negotiations keep tariff risks alive for textiles and autos.

• Earnings Season: Q1 FY26 growth at 4.6%, with Nvidia's report on August 27 critical for AI/tech sentiment; Indian firms like IndianOil show mixed results amid high valuations.

• Monsoon Boost: Rainfall at 90% of normal supports rural demand, lifting auto and FMCG sectors, as noted in market quotes on X.

• Technicals and Volatility: Nifty support at 24,500, resistance at 25,000; declining VIX to 11.28 hints at stability but potential sharp moves.

👀Stocks to Focus:

• Technology/AI: Nvidia (NVDA) for Q2 FY26 results and AI ecosystem insights.

• Banking: Royal Bank of Canada (RY) amid dividend growth and restructuring benefits.

• Consumer Goods: MINISO Group (MNSO) and Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) for demand trends.

• Energy/Industrials: IndianOil and Cummins India, tied to PMI and global data.

📜 Summary:

The week of August 25-29, 2025, begins with Sensex at 81,635.91 and Nifty at 24,967.75 after weekly gains, driven by rate cut optimism and trade truce extensions. Key events include FOMC minutes, global PMIs, and US PCE data, alongside earnings like Nvidia's, which could sway tech sentiment. India's WPI and forex reserves will gauge domestic strength, with the monsoon aiding recovery. Nifty's range (24,500-25,000) suggests consolidation, with opportunities in tech, banking, and consumer stocks amid easing global tensions.

🚀 Stay cautious, watch key events, and trade wisely!

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