Bulls Steady Ahead of Earnings Season, Inflation Data, and Trump vs China Trade Tensions!

Overview

• Weekly Close: The BSE Sensex settled 0.40% higher at 82,500.82, and the Nifty 50 gained 0.41% to close at 25,285.35 on October 10, extending gains for the second week amid IT sector rallies (TCS up 3%) and positive global cues from Fed easing expectations.

• Broader Markets Steady: Nifty Midcap 100 rose 0.3%, while Smallcap 100 edged up 0.1%, supported by DII buying amid selective profit-taking in high-valuation stocks.

• FII/DII Shift: FIIs turned net buyers of Rs 459.20 crore on October 10, a positive pivot after September's Rs 30,509 crore outflows; DIIs added Rs 1,707.83 crore, bolstering stability.

• Global Cues: US markets flat ahead of CPI data, with S&P 500 unchanged; Asian indices mixed, Nikkei up 0.5% on BoJ policy hints, while rupee held at 86.50 vs USD.

• Outlook: Consolidation likely in 25,000-25,500 (Nifty) range, with upside to 25,600 if inflation softens; volatility from Q2 earnings and US data.

📅 Weekly Events Calendar

💡 DO YOU KNOW?

FIIs recorded net buys of Rs 1,308.68 crore on October 9, signaling a potential reversal from September's heavy outflows, driven by softer inflation and RBI liquidity measures.

Important Observations and Market Sentiments: Editor Special

• Inflation Focus: India's WPI (Oct 13) and CPI (Oct 16) expected at 2.5% and 3.5% YoY, respectively, below RBI targets, opening doors for an October rate cut; US CPI (Oct 13) at 2.6% forecast could confirm Fed's dovish path.

• Q2 Earnings Surge: Over 100 companies report, including HCL Tech (Oct 13) and Reliance (Oct 17); in-line growth at 4.6% anticipated, but IT/pharma surprises could push Nifty past 25,500.

• FII Momentum Pivot: October's early net buys (Rs 1,767.88 crore cumulative) contrast with September's selloff, fueled by global easing; DIIs' Rs 40,000 crore monthly support remains key stabilizer.

• Trade Optimism: India-US mini-deal talks post-Goyal visit yield progress, with exemptions shielding pharma; US jobs data (Oct 17) risks volatility if unemployment rises to 4.2%.

• Technicals Alert: Nifty's support at 25,000 holds, resistance at 25,400; staying above 25,200 signals bullish continuation

👀Stocks to Focus:

• IT: HCL Technologies and Tech Mahindra, for Q2 updates on US demand amid Fed cues.

• Diversified: Reliance Industries, with Q2 results on October 17, highlighting energy and retail segments.

• Insurance: ICICI Lombard, sensitive to inflation and rate-cut benefits.

• Midcaps: Persistent Systems, riding outsourcing trends.

📜 Summary:

The week of October 13-17, 2025, builds on Nifty's close at 25,285.35 and Sensex at 82,500.82, with Q2 earnings (HCL Tech, Reliance) and inflation data (WPI Oct 13, CPI Oct 16) in the spotlight. US CPI and jobs report add global volatility, while FII buying signals easing pressures. Nifty eyes 25,400 upside above 25,000 support; focus on IT, diversified, and insurance stocks amid RBI cut hopes and trade progress.

🚀 Stay cautious, watch key events, and trade wisely!

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